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Sunday, April 24, 2011

A fragile global recovery? (Reuters)

By Kristina Cooke

NEW YORK (Reuters) ? Data on how the U.S. and British economies fared in the first three months of the year due next week will likely highlight the tenuous nature of the recovery from recession in developed countries.

A combination of rising gasoline prices and bad weather has prompted a number of big banks to cut their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in the first quarter.

The preliminary snapshot of U.S. GDP growth, which a Reuters survey puts at 2.0 percent, will be released on April 28.

In the UK, where weak consumer demand is expected to weigh on first-quarter output, the preliminary reading will be released on Wednesday.

"The GDP figures will probably zoom in the focus more closely on fundamentals. A disappointment in the UK and U.S. may temper some of the buoyancy behind commodity and equity prices," said Lena Komileva, global head of G10 currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in London.

Many economists, including Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, believe commodity price rises will prove temporary, and will thus have no lasting impact on inflation or growth.

But the most recent data suggests the U.S. economy won't regain momentum soon. On Thursday, data showed factory activity in the Middle Atlantic states braked sharply in April.

Slower U.S. growth coupled with persistently high unemployment suggests the Fed is in no hurry to raise interest rates, even as it is almost certain to end a $600 billion bond buying program in June as planned.

Bernanke will get a chance to explain the Fed's thinking when he faces the media April 27 for his first post-meeting press conference.

"Communication is an extremely important tool for the Fed -- now more than ever -- to continue to manage down rate (hike) expectations at a time when it is too early for the economy to bear a rate hike," Komileva said.

Most analysts expect the Fed will hold support for the economy steady by maintaining the size of its balance sheet after June.

The Bank of England faces more pressure than the Fed to reverse course, with inflation seen rising again, and analysts say the GDP data may be important in influencing the BoE's decision on the timing of rate hikes.

Like the Fed, the BoE has kept rates at a record low for more than two years. In contrast, the European Central Bank raised borrowing costs this month for the first time since July 2008.

Weak GDP data would strengthen the hand of those Bank of England members worried what raising interest rates would do for fragile demand.

On the fiscal side, the UK is already undergoing strict austerity measures and may offer a preview of what lies in store for the United States when it starts to tighten its belt.

"The UK data is probably a little more due to fiscal austerity. That's something the U.S. ought to contend with next year, and the UK is contending with now," said Michael Feroli, U.S. economist at JPMorgan.

Standard & Poor's on Monday threatened to downgrade the United States' prized triple-A credit rating unless the Obama administration and Congress find a way to slash the yawning federal budget deficit within two years.

President Barack Obama on Wednesday warned that if the U.S. slashes spending too deeply, it could face a second recession.

"If all we are doing is spending cuts, and we are not discriminating about it, if we are using a machete instead of a scalpel, and we are cutting out things that create jobs, then the deficit could actually get worse because we could slip back into another recession," he said.

Complicating things further, the United States won't learn the full impact on its economy from last month's catastrophic earthquake and tsunami until the second quarter is well under way.

Feroli said the impact could be "pretty significant."

Japan, though, will get its first post-earthquake look at some important indicators, including inflation, household spending and industrial production.

The Bank of Japan is also set to provide an update of its growth and inflation forecasts.

(Editing by James Dalgleish)

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Mizuho Bank head to resign over computer glitch: report (Reuters)

TOKYO (Reuters) ? The head of Mizuho Bank, the retail banking unit of Japan's second-largest lender Mizuho Financial Group, will resign by June over a massive computer glitch, the Asahi newspaper reported on Saturday.

Mizuho was hit by the glitch last month after accounts were flooded with donations for a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami in northeast Japan that killed up to 28,000 people.

The computer troubles forced shutdowns of Mizuho's automatic teller machines and disrupted transactions, adding to the woes of businesses and households already badly shaken by the disasters.

Mizuho Bank's president, Satoru Nishibori, is seen compiling a plan to prevent a recurrence of such glitches and formally announce his resignation by a shareholders' meeting in June, the Asahi said, without citing a source.

Candidates to replace him include Manabu Yoshidome, Mizuho Bank's deputy president, and Takashi Nonaka, president of Mizuho Trust & Banking, the Asahi added.

Some form of punishment for Mizuho Financial Group President and CEO Takashi Tsukamoto is also being considered, the newspaper said.

(Reporting by Chisa Fujioka; Editing by Robert Birsel)

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Costly gasoline clouds Obama re-election prospects (AP)

Barack Obama By MARK S. SMITH, Associated Press

WASHINGTON ? With gas prices climbing and little relief in sight, President Barack Obama is scrambling to get ahead of the latest potential obstacle to his re-election bid, even as Republicans are making plans to exploit the issue.

No one seems more aware of the electoral peril than Obama himself.

"My poll numbers go up and down depending on the latest crisis, and right now gas prices are weighing heavily on people," he told Democratic donors in Los Angeles this past week.

In fact, Obama raised the issue unsolicited in a series of town meetings in Virginia, California and Nevada that were ostensibly about his deficit-reduction plan. And he made the gas spike the subject of his weekly radio and Internet address Saturday.

"It's just another burden when things were already pretty tough," he said.

As Obama well knows, Americans love their cars and remain heavily dependent on them, and they don't hesitate to punish politicians when the cost of filling their tanks goes through the roof. Indeed, for presidents, responding to sudden surges is a recurring frustration.

"These gas prices are killing you right now," Obama said at Facebook headquarters in Palo Alto, acknowledging that many Americans can't afford new fuel-efficient cars and must drive older models.. For some, he said, the cost of a fill-up has all but erased the benefit of the payroll tax holiday that he and congressional Republicans agreed on last December.

On Saturday, Obama insisted in his radio and Internet address that the best answer is a long-term drive to develop alternatives to fossil fuel. He also renewed calls to end $4 billion in subsidies for oil and gas companies. "Instead of subsidizing yesterday's energy sources," he said, "we need to invest in tomorrow's."

Republicans contend that high gas prices are the inevitable result of an administration they accuse of stifling domestic drilling, and which placed new curbs on offshore exploration after last spring's disastrous BP oil spill.

"The administration has declared what can only be described as a war on American energy," said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

"Obama is vulnerable on gas prices and the Republicans have and will exploit this as a wedge issue," said James Thurber, who directs the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University.

Legislative aides report House Republicans are considering a series of hearings and floor votes on measures to boost domestic oil and gas production when Congress returns from its Easter break.

Meantime, Obama has ordered his Justice Department to form a task force to look for fraud or manipulation in the oil markets. It will "root out" any abuses, he told a town meeting in Reno, Nev. The president is among those who've said the surging price for crude is caused by worries about political upheaval in the Arab world and increasing demand from China and elsewhere.

Still, Americans have a tradition of holding the party in power responsible for rising gas costs.

Obama's focus on the issue came as a New York Times/CBS News poll published Thursday found that 70 percent of the public believes the country is headed in the wrong direction. That followed a March AP-GfK survey reflecting widespread discontent over the economy, with just 15 percent seeing an economic improvement the previous month. Through the spring, Obama's approval numbers in several polls have slipped.

"Gas prices are a major factor in his slide ... along with unemployment and his talk about cuts and tax increases to deal with deficits and debt," Thurber said.

The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline is currently $3.84, almost a dollar higher than a year ago. In many places, it's well over $4.

The gas price debate has a sense of deja vu to it, Obama notes. Vows to end dependence on expensive oil imports go back to Richard Nixon's "Project Independence", a 1973 response to the Arab oil embargo, and this has been a popular refrain by presidents of both parties over the last 40 years.

"Whenever gas prices shoot up, like clockwork, you see politicians racing to the cameras, waving three-point plans for two dollar gas," Obama said in Saturday's address. But when prices subside, those plans are quietly shelved.

Even calls to target price gouging have a familiar ring. When gas hit $3 a gallon in 2006, George W. Bush launched a probe, declaring Americans "don't want and will not accept ... manipulation of the market. And neither will I."

Seven months later, Bush took what he called a "thumping" in mid-term elections. Of course, other issues ? especially Iraq ? played a big role. But Obama can't help pondering that example, and wondering what rising gas prices could do to his hopes for a second term.

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Beckham, Elton, Mr. Bean to attend royal wedding (AP)

Prince William, Kate Middleton By SYLVIA HUI, Associated Press

LONDON ? David Beckham, Elton John and Mr. Bean actor Rowan Atkinson will mingle with dozens of royal guests at Prince William and Kate Middleton's wedding, according to an official guest list released Saturday that includes one uncomfortable presence ? the Bahraini crown prince accused of a brutal crackdown on protesters.

St. James's Palace also released the seating plan at Westminster Abbey, which showed that relatives of William's mother Princess Diana are sitting across the aisle from the royal family, joining the Middletons in an exception to the traditional division of a church into a bride's side and groom's side.

There was no explanation of the seating arrangement, but the Spencers have not had a good relationship with the royal family, especially after Diana's brother Charles Spencer attacked the royals during a speech at her 1997 funeral.

More than 46 foreign royals are seated behind the British royals. They include Bahrain's Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, an invitation that could prove awkward in light of his government's rough treatment of mainly Shiite pro-democracy protesters.

Some human rights campaigners have started to petition Foreign Secretary William Hague to revoke the invitation, saying the prince should not be allowed to attend the occasion. At least 30 people have died in Bahrain since mid-February, including four who died while in official custody, and many well-known activists and lawyers have been imprisoned.

Other foreign royals who are attending include those from Denmark, Norway, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and Morocco. Only a handful of celebrities are invited, including the Beckhams, director Guy Ritchie, soul singer Joss Stone, and Atkinson ? a close friend of William's father Prince Charles.

Although about 1,900 guests have been invited to the couple's wedding ceremony at Westminster Abbey, half of them will sit in the section of the abbey where views of the altar are restricted, and they will have to rely upon video screens to follow the service.

Queen Elizabeth II and other royal family members will sit in the front row across the aisle from Middleton's parents and brother James. They will be closest to the abbey's sanctuary, where William and his bride will stand.

Foreign dignitaries, the Middletons' family friends, British government and defense officials, families of British soldiers killed in Iraq and Afghanistan, William's army colleagues, and people who work for William's charities will be seated around the abbey.

Palace officials said that only crowned heads of states are traditionally invited to royal weddings, and that political leaders who are not from the 54-member Commonwealth of nations, such as President Barack Obama or French President Nicolas Sarkozy, weren't sent invitations.

About 600 of the guests will then attend a champagne and canapes reception at Buckingham Palace hosted by the queen.

__

Online: The guest list and seating plan at

http://www.officialroyalwedding2011.org/blog/2011/April/23/Latest-Royal-Wedding-media-briefing-download-now-available

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US Senator McCain in Egypt after Libya visit (AFP)

US Senator McCain in Egypt after Libya visit

CAIRO (AFP) ? Senior US Senator John McCain met Egypt's military chief and foreign minister on Saturday, a day after a trip to the Libyan rebel stronghold of Benghazi, Egyptian television reported.

It said McCain, a Republican who lost his 2008 presidential bid to Barack Obama, met Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces that has ruled Egypt since the February ouster of Hosni Mubarak.

McCain also discussed American aid with Foreign Minister Nabil al-Arabi, as well as Middle East developments and the conflict in Libya.

The official MENA news agency said McCain briefed Arabi on his talks with Libyan rebel leaders in their Benghazi stronghold.

On Friday, McCain urged the international community to arm and recognise the rebel Transitional National Council (TNC) as the "legitimate voice" of the Libyan people.

"I would encourage every nation, especially the United States, to recognise the Transitional National Council as the legitimate voice of the Libyan people. They have earned this right," he told reporters in Benghazi.

France, Gambia, Italy and Qatar are the only countries so far to have recognised the TNC, Libya's parallel government in the east.

McCain, a US Navy pilot in the Vietnam war, also urged NATO to step up its campaign of air strikes to protect civilians from Libyan leader Moamer Kadhafi's forces, especially in besieged Misrata.

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